The benefit of hindsight

I'm going to go back in time today and look at an item in history that I don't think has ever really been resolved.

Come with me back to 1990 and imagine a young Jean Alesi - driver of the moment, the man who had impetuously passed Ayrton Senna's McLaren in his little Tyrrell, the man surely destined to be a multiple grand prix and championship winner. The man who had somehow managed to sign himself to both Williams and Ferrari contracts at the same time and who now had to choose which one to go with. A contract hoo-haa erupted, but Ferrari were the eventual winners and young Alesi would be partnering his hero, Alain Prost - the world was at Alesi's feet.

Fast Forward to the end of the 90s and there's Jean once again, 1 grand prix victory under his belt, no championships and a bemused paddock wondering quite what had happened to the man destined to be one of the greats. During the same period, Williams had made world champions out of Mansell, Prost, Hill and Villenueve as well as winning 5 constructors championships.

"Obviously", everyone said, with grave voices, knowing nods and the benefit of hindsight, "Jean made the wrong decision to go with Ferrari and the fiery Sicilian has let his head rule his heart. He should have taken the logical choice and have gone with Williams."

However, I'd like to take a different view. My view is that Jean made the correct decision for the time and I suspect most in his situation would have make the same choice; Jean was just unfortunate that it turned out over time to be the wrong decision.

To understand why I'm putting my head on the block like this, you need to look at the bigger picture.

In 1988, Ferrari had one race win to Williams zero wins and finished second in the championship against Williams 7th.
1989 Ferrari had 3 wins to Williams 2, although Williams took 2nd in the championship and Ferrari were 3rd.
In 1990, Ferrari had 6 (!) wins to Williams 2 and were runners up in the championship whilst Williams were 4th.

If the trend continued, as it looked like it might, then Ferrari were by far the stronger team and had the strength and experience to possibly take Alesi to the title. Williams looked like they were still in their rocky period after a dominating time with Honda. Their relationship with Renault hadn't yet shown its potential.

I think, looking at the stats above, Alesi would have been crazy to go to Williams at that time. Sadly for him, craziness was what we needed at that time but any sane person would have gone to Ferrari, a team that was fighting for the championship, and get the experience to partner and learn from Prost - one of the greatest drivers ever in the sport.

Jean was just unlucky.

Thoughts on Bahrain

Well, I don't like to boast but I should point out that I did predict Massa dominating the Bahrain GP and I was right. So, stick with this blog and you can impress your friends with your foresight. Anyway, well done me and Massa.

I only want to mention one thing about Bahrain GP and for me that was the hint that Honda might actually be making a small step towards becoming vaguely competitive rather than a laughing stock.

It'd be difficult for them to be much worse than they were last year but pre-season testing seemed to suggest that they might actually be. However, come Melbourne it wasn't as bad as was predicted with them lining up 10th and 12th. Malaysia they lined up 11th and 14th with Button setting the 4th fastest lap.

In Bahrain Button and Barrichello managed to qualify 9th and 12th although the race didn't pan out as well as could have been expected. However, are we starting to see the influence of Ross Brawn?

Many times a tech director will change team and talk about their 3 year or 5 year plan and then never actually end up delivering anything, but Brawn is different. He has a devastating track record and despite some of the questionable things that Ferrari have done, you still have to have respect for what he's done over the years. Just having him in your team and knowing that he's got a plan to win the world championship with you would be enough to get you to work just that little bit harder - because you have confidence in what he's doing. That's something that Honda has been lacking since they got rid of Geoff Willis.

So is it just a brief upsurge in their performance or are we starting to see a comeback for Honda? I wouldn't like to say and it's far too early in the season to be confident about such a thing, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it was the latter - and if so, I'd be extremely impressed at how quickly Brawn had managed to assert himself.

Time will tell

Prediction for the weekend

I like to put my head on the block every now and again. It gives me an opportunity to be smug when I'm right and for others to laugh at me when I'm wrong.

I was toying with the idea of predicting the podium this weekend but it would be a bit dull predicting Hamilton, Raikkonen and Massa each race so I'm going to try to predict the winner instead.

So, the winner on Sunday will be........Felipe Massa.

Yes, fresh from me mocking him the other day for throwing away the championship (which he still won't win, despite this weekends crushing win), I still think he'll win the race and make some comment about his championship being back on track.

Why do I think he'll win? Because he wants the chamionshoip enough to be desperate to get it back on track again Raikkonen and Hamilton, both of whom will be looking slightly long term. If Massa drove like this all of the time then he might win the championship but he doesn't. This weekend though, he will, and he'll win.

That's my prediction - prepare to congratulate or mock me!

Place your bets

The German and Japanese car makers make their view pretty plain...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/7328018.stm

Will he be gone before or after the Bahrain GP?

I reckon he'll hold on until after, but not much longer!

Is Massa already out of the championship?

It looks hard for him doesn't it? 14 points behind Hamilton and 11 behind his team mate. Of course, it's far too early to be writing him off but I'm not convinced that he's good enough to claw back that gap - especially when you're up against guys like Hamilton and Raikkonen, both of whom know how to get the points even when things are up against them.

Massa on the other hand still makes silly mistakes (2 unprompted spins in 2 races this year) and isn't known to be able to deliver when the chips are down.

In some ways he's a little like Ralf Schumacher - when things are right then he's fantastic but if something goes wrong then his chin drops and he can be woeful.

But I don't support it's all over yet - he won from pole last year and if he can do the same again this year then that'll help him.

However, I think it's a long shot. For me, the championship this year is between Hamilton and Raikkonen with Kovalainen pushing them all them way.

F1 back on the BBC!

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/65897

I'm not sure if this is good news or not. On the face of it it looks like fantastic news - no more adverts, no more James Allen, more impartial coverage and the return of The Chain theme tune.

If that's the reality then great, but I'm a little concerned that it might not work out that way. They could end up getting an even worse commentator and you might end up having no live qualifying and no build up or review (remember the days when we used to consider ourselves lucky if we got the press conference after the race?).

So, what would I like to see the BBC doing? Well, it's quite simple:

• Ben Edwards and Martin Brundle as the commentators
• Less biased coverage - there are more drivers than Lewis Hamilton
• None of the silly features that we seem to be subjected to
• Yeah, it'd be nice to have The Chain - dummmm dum dum dummm dum dum dum dum dummm dummmmmmmmmmmmm.

I personally don't think that we need an hour of build up to the race. 30 minutes would be enough to run through the latest F1 news, qualifying, outline some of the things that might happen, perhaps with an interview or two and perhaps do a grid walk. But really, I only want to hear from people if they have something interesting to say - I get tired of hearing drivers telling me that they'll drive to the first corner and see what happens. That doesn't tell me anything!

Then after the race - it'd be nice to watch the warm down lap, podium ceremony, press conference and then a brief review of the main events of the race with some interesting insight.

Simple. BBC - make it so!

Mosley Must Go

Now he must go.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/7325602.stm

I've never been a huge fan of the man and his treatment of McLaren, Brundle and Jackie Stewart especially had me desperate to go. But the exposé of his S&M session with prostitutes surely must force him to go.

I feel sorry for him getting caught out by a rag of a newspaper and in another world his personal life wouldn't affect his professional life, but he cannot possibly remain in the post now. Who would take him seriously? From now on, every comment he makes to the press about any subject will always be associated with his preferences in his personal life. He can comment about the behaviour of drivers and teams but all people will think about is his preference for getting whipped by Nazis.

Max, go now, while you have a tiny bit of dignity left. You got caught doing something that you knew would finish your career so accept it and move on.